Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 31.381538 35.144541 39.511671 45.041811 51.991625 60.633418 72.536201
2025-04-13 27.392413 32.436721 38.909390 48.178130 61.806249 82.523064 120.180171
2025-04-20 23.617512 28.967520 36.298648 47.750828 66.789759 101.444803 187.072760
2025-04-27 21.208855 26.744360 34.744346 48.211760 73.325306 128.708382 337.632893
2025-05-04 19.455571 25.087527 33.591937 48.867657 80.590796 166.613711 799.761266
2025-05-11 17.990117 23.603324 32.378555 49.007014 86.993718 214.301085 3966.229687
2025-05-18 16.654743 22.127769 30.905155 48.229447 90.978321 265.565679 NaN
2025-05-25 15.704977 21.130204 30.059108 48.448696 97.862974 358.600981 NaN
2025-06-01 14.815011 20.127176 29.048274 48.059266 102.965186 478.853376 NaN
2025-06-08 14.015493 19.191930 28.030386 47.412528 107.061734 646.070043 NaN
2025-06-15 13.324552 18.374182 27.124977 46.823074 111.227946 919.268115 NaN
2025-06-22 12.750828 17.704603 26.416287 46.550214 116.715149 1506.408340 NaN
2025-06-29 12.106074 16.879209 25.348187 45.240948 117.442491 2239.298356 NaN
2025-07-06 11.942396 16.862470 25.833840 48.008615 140.221411 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 11.465012 16.264847 25.107506 47.398919 145.462115 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 11.117657 15.872468 24.755221 47.763875 157.565449 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 10.818493 15.544942 24.501273 48.365099 172.969378 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 10.504036 15.169485 24.110255 48.480491 185.892754 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 10.146578 14.695711 23.470234 47.706557 190.914732 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.887198 14.387004 23.157936 47.916917 206.450683 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 9.604273 14.019873 22.688800 47.532203 216.210177 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 9.323309 13.642926 22.170375 46.896062 222.885286 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.064006 13.294666 21.691208 46.316686 230.131451 NaN NaN